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Winter flood outlook 2026–27: what a strong El Niño means

NOAA's winter outlook calls for a very strong El Niño, which usually brings a wetter winter to the southern U.S. and the East Coast. Check your address to see the outlook where you live.

Reviewed October 2026

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What NOAA expects

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its winter outlook on October 16, 2026. For December through February it favors:

  • Wetter than normal across the Southwest, the South and the East Coast
  • Drier than normal in Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West and parts of the Great Lakes
  • Easing drought in parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast and East Coast

NOAA also warned that heavy rain falling on dry ground can cause flash flooding and mudslides. Dry, hard soil soaks up water slowly, so more of it runs off into streets, streams and low-lying areas. Land scarred by wildfires is especially prone to mudslides.

The outlook gives odds for the whole season, not a forecast for any storm. A wetter-than-normal winter means more chances for flooding rain, not a guarantee of it, and a drier one can still bring a damaging storm.

Check your address

Look up your address to see your FEMA flood zone, any active flood alerts, nearby river gauges, and NOAA's winter rain outlook for your exact location.

What to do before winter

  1. Look at flood insurance now. Homeowners and renters policies don't cover flooding, and a new NFIP policy usually takes 30 days to take effect, so it has to be in place before the storms. See flood insurance basics.
  2. Clear gutters, downspouts and storm drains near your home, so heavy rain has somewhere to go.
  3. Know your route to higher ground and make a plan with your household. See how to prepare for a flood. The same storms can knock out power, so see SHTF Prep's winter storm checklist and how to stay warm without power.
  4. Turn on flood alerts for your address with the Flood.global app, and learn what each alert means in flood alerts explained.

Never drive or walk into floodwater. Just 6 inches of fast-moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and 12 inches of rushing water can carry away most cars.

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